Heather McLeod


Body, Mind, Soul,


4538105618_121x120.jpg 4538105619.jpg

National Health Insurance Models and Commentary

Healthcare Financing, Policy and Reform

McLeod-Grobler-Van der Berg Preliminary Model


Business Day published an opinion piece by Prof Servaas van der Berg and Prof Heather McLeod on the promises being made and the lack of hard numbers. They concluded “The NHI proposal can only be taken seriously once a proper analysis of its costs, fiscal consequences and affordability has been undertaken. The current proposal is beyond what the country can afford.”


  • Promises. Promises. Why the National Health Insurance plan needs hard numbers – by  Servaas van der Berg and Heather McLeod.




In February 2010 Heather McLeod, Pieter Grobler and Servaas van der Berg placed a report in the public domain detailing the assumptions and methodology used:


  • McLeod, H., Grobler, P., & van der Berg, S. (2010). Preliminary Estimate of NHI Costing in 2009 Rand Terms. McLeod-Grobler-Van der Berg Model Methodology and Assumptions. A briefing paper prepared for National Treasury.  18 February 2010.




A spreadsheet of the model is also in the public domain and can be down-loaded:

Preliminary NHI High-Level Costing McLeod Grobler vP3.xls







Models by Other Researchers


Several other preliminary models were built and are described in a section of the IMSA site:




Subsequent models built by the Ministerial Advisory Committee on NHI and by National Treasury are not in the public domain.





Commentary on NHI in the South African Health Review


  • Social or National Health Insurance



  • National Health Insurance: Providing a vocabulary for public engagement

  • A Financial Feasibility Review of National Health Insurance Proposals for South Africa

  • Human Resource Requirements for National Health Insurance

  • Private Sector Perspectives on National Health Insurance

  • Improving the Performance of the Health System

  • National Health Insurance: Legal and Civil Society Considerations




  • Primary Health Care in SA since 1994 and Implications of the New Vision for PHC Re-engineering

  • Human Resources for Health for South Africa: HRH Strategy for the Health Sector 2012/13 - 2016/17



  • National Health Insurance: The first 18 months





Research by Health Economics Unit at University of Cape Town

See under projects and publications





Research on NHI by ECONEX 

See the Econex Health Reform Note Series:



pdf small Excel-icon